Friday, February 01, 2008

What do the polls say?

I've spent a little time looking over the latest offering from Pollster and all I can say is there simply isn't enough tracking data to be certain about much. Very, very few polls have been taken since Florida and they are not by the most reliable polling agencies. Still, it appears that there is a distinct advantage to Hillary from Edwards dropping out. What does it look like?
  • Alabama - 60 delegates. All bets would have been on Barry until Wednesday. Survey USA has a poll of likely voters taken yesterday that shows HRC and BHO in a tie. It looks like both Edwards and undecided voters went 3-2 for Hillary. I wouldn't bet on a win, but grabbing about half the delegates would be nice.
  • Arizona - 67 delegates. No polls since before South Carolina. HRC has edge. I would guess it has gone up.
  • Arkansas - 47 delegates. Clinton country.
  • California - 441 delegates. Crazy time around here. The effete latte sippers up north are going big time for Barry, while the effete latte sippers down in SoCal like Hillary. LA Times endorsed Obama, but no one pays much attention to it. The last poll was Rasmussen on the 29th, so not including Florida or the debate. They have the gap narrowing, but other before that had RC getting stronger. It will be close and the vote count is going to take forever because of all our Diebold machines being decertified. (Heh-heh) I say 5-4 in Hillary's favor. SoCal Edwards voters are going HRC.
  • Colorado - 71 delegates. A caucus state so plenty of opportunity to scream at and intimidate people. BarryBots may be more drag than push, though, after the last few weeks. Also, no polls since FL or Edwards dropping out.
  • Connecticut - 60 delegates. I smell Joe Liebermnan's clammy hands on this one. HRC came out early and strong for Lamont, sternly rebuking Holy Joe, while Obama kept sucking up. The one poll has Obama ahead by 4, but another done on the same day has him behind by 13. HRC herself is steadily increasing support there. It will be close.
  • Delware - 23 delegates. Not enough data points and polls are heavily skewed to HRC. I don't trust these numbers.
  • Georgia - 103 delgates. Obama will win this strongly. HRC consistently has polled low in GA since this time last year. Just not her state. She's actually stronger now than last year.
  • Idaho - 23 delegates. Who knows? They look about tied. This is probably the worst state in the union for someone non-white and non-male could run in.
  • Illinois - 185 delegates. Very interesting phenomenon here. Obama is steady at @ 50% and HRC has zoomed up to 40 since Florida. I dont' see him losing, but she obviously has strength here. She was born in Illinois, after all, and has some strong partisans there.
  • Kansas - 41 delegates. Almostt a dead heat between all three in the single poll reported on Pollster. It was taken in May and is worthless. I bet on Obama because of Sebelius, but HRC may surprise with some strength.
  • MA - 121 delegates. HRC is bursting up in the Survey USA poll. That is Florida and Edwards being out.
  • Missouri - 88 delegates. Edwards voters appear to be breaking to Obama here, though polling is tight. Too few data points for real accuracy. McCaskill is promoting Barry, of course, but HRC seems genuinely popular there.
  • Minnesota - 88 delegates. Not enough data and it's a caucus state almost next door to Ilinois. Expect BarryBots in droves. Even so, HRC is polling strongly ahead.
  • New Joisey - 127 delegates. HRC.
  • New Mexico - 38 delegates. More than Delaware. Whoda thunk it? Wide open, no reliable data, and Bill Richardson trying to get into the White House. Flip a coin.
  • New York - 281 delegates. HRC by a mile. She's regularly polling over 50 and Baryy can't break 40. This is a different dynamic than in Illinois, where HRC is gaining on Barry who can't seem to break 51% among Democrats. She'll win her state and delegates more strongly than BHO, and looks to gain a larger share of Illinois than he gets of NY.
  • Oklahoma - 47 delegates. HRC is polling well, but so is Edwards and his votes reallocate. Wes Clark won here last time and is stumping for her here.
  • Tennessee - 85 delegates. HRC should win strongly here, but watch out for the large pack of undecideds.
  • Utah - 29 delegates. Strongly for Hillary.

So, no knock out punch, but that delegate scorecard is going to look a lot different come Wednesday morning than it does now. I will be pounding back mojitos in honor of Mardi Gras Tuesday evening (after I cast my paper ballot for HRC, of course), and expect to be partying well into the wee hours. The drinking game is take a swig whenever one of the media tries to excplain that votes don't count if they are cast for Hillary.

But beware of alcohol poisoning.


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