Needs

So, it appears that my observation that Hillary and Barry on the same ticket generates more power than simply looking at their relative strengths is the meme of the evening in the blogosphere. However, there is an assumption among the blogbots that HRC gains more from having Obama as a running mate than Barry gets from having Hillary.

Horsepuckey.

Look at the cumulative cross-tabs. Obama's weaknesses among voters are more pronounced than Hillary's weaknesses, and his strengths are either concentrated in small voting groups or are based on unreliable constituencies.

• HRC pulls over 50% of the white vote, and appears to be pulling more than that of hispanic voters, who are a constituency that is wavering between Republicans and Democrats.
• She significantly outpolls everyone in either party on women voters who are the single largest demographic voter group. To the degree that people do identity voting, the sheer numbers of women voters quickly provide volume.
• Hillary consistently outpolls Barry with people over 40, who make up 60+% of the voter turnout. Her margins with younger voters aren't too shabby, either.
• On issues, more people care about domestic policy (economy, health care, housing, etc.) than about Iraq, and they favor Hillary. As far as Iraq goes, more voters will agree with HRC's position than with Barry's, if only because they intially supported the war and now feel foolish.
• HRC also attracts and holds the Democratic base far more than Barry, and these are voters who will not defect in the general, the way cross-over Republicans or weekly committed Independents might be.
• She gets union, pink and blue collar votes far in excess of Obama or Edwards, and she inspires voting among low income, less educated women.
• Finally, she strongly out perfroms Obama in the suburbs where the soccer moms congregate and where voter turn out is highest. As it happens, she also polls better than he does in urban and rural areas.

In short, she already dominates the core constituencies on the left except for African American voters. If she keeps her campaign clean, that constituency will probably give her at least a strategic if not very enthusiastic vote.

What Obama can do is bring in a new cadre of younger voters who will likely stay committed to vote for him down the road. He can bring in some of those Independents and convert them to Democrats. This is a group that is increasingly made up of people who have defected from the Republican party, but need some extra "oomph" to take the final step and join up. I'm not sure about the male vote, as guys sexist enough to refuse to vote for HRC overlap considerably with guys who vote along racial lines, too. Finally, he gives a fig leaf to the HRC haters who wil have to walk back their bigotry, allowing them to hold onto their disdain but claim to be seeting up a strategic situation for the next time.

Hillary's strengths are deeply rooted in the core of the party. Barry would do well to cultivate that connection.

Anglachel