Thursday, June 08, 2006

And Here Are the Numbers


Quinnipiac has just posted its latest CT polling numbers and gives us the latest data on the Lieberman-Lamont match-up.
The important number is the split in the likely voters. Lamont is at 40%, with only 4% undecided. He's scooped up almost all the undecideds and peeled away a chunk of unenthusiastic Liebermann people. Lieberman has 55%, which is strong, but not insurmountable.

The trouble comes in the details. Those numbers are reached by counting leaning voters, not committed, so the 40% is soft. Among registered, though not likely, voters, Lieberman is still more popular even with self-identified "liberal" democrats than Lamont. The other cautionary numbers are that a far, far greater percentage of voters are going to vote Lamont to get Lieberman than because they want to elect Lamont, and that Lamont's unfavorable levels are going up higher than his favorables, though both are dwarfed by the number (76%) who say they don't know much about him. His favorables among Democrats barely break two figures at 11%.

The general election match-up numbers are also moving towards Lamont, though not at Lieberman's expense for the most part.

So, Lamont is holding onto his convention success, but may not be radically expanding it. The more committed voters are solidifying their stances (there's a breakdown) so I don't think there will be much more movement among that group. The question is whether the undecideds and wishy-washy can be wooed in the next eight weeks. There's only a few undecideds left, so now comes the hard work of making a voter switch candidates.

The discouraging aspect is that Lamont has not increased his numbers if you compare this poll of Dems to te Rasmussen poll before the convention - both show 32% support. If you use that as a touchstone, Lamont has been sitting in the low 30s for over four weeks.

No doubt, this is a horse race, but it is Lieberman's to lose, not Lamont's to win.


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