Sunday, December 30, 2007

Odds and Ends at Year End

Just a few things.
  1. The nonsense that Hillary's negatives are a guarantee that she cannot win. Please read this Gallup article from earlier this year that goes into some detail about what drives anti-HRC sentiment and how her favorables/unfavorables stack up. Also, just look at polls that show her tied with or well ahead of any other Democratic candidate in the primaries. And you might as well look at the polls that consistently show her beating the Republicans. In short, that dog don't hunt any more.
  2. Two from Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic. One is on the fact that, in Iowa, Hillary is getting standing ovations in her speeches, which one takes from the context that neither she nor the other Dems were getting before. The other is a sly observation that, at Edwards events (which are packed), you dont' see Illinois license plates in the parking lot. Once again, it appears that Obama is packing local events with out-of-state supporters to try to fool the news media into thinking his Iowa support is stronger than it is. As Joe Biden said, "Hello, Chicago!"
  3. Obama is sinking in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, and is frantically starting calls to California to try to get Golden State voters to send in absentee primary ballots for him to lock in support before he loses.
  4. Here's a great question and answer exchange conducted by Charlie Savage of the Boston Globe with Hillary on presidential powers (you may have to register). Savage asked the exact same questions of all major Democratic and Republican candidates (links are on that page), and they are all worth a read. These are tough questions on the theory and practice of executive authority and all Democrats did very well. Read these questions in the context of Paul Krugman's newest article, The Great Divide, in the NY Times. Of the Republicans, McCain is troubling, Romney is horrifying, and Ron Paul meandering. Guiliani, Huckabee and Thompson would not even answer the questions. Losers.
  5. Will HRC win the Iowa caucuses? Much as I want to say yes, I think it is unlikely. She is making her rivals spend enormous amounts of time and money to eke out any advantage, which no one thought would happen (Remember? "Everyone hates Hillary!") and she will make a solid showing in the state, but I think it is unlikely she will unequivocally win. Her trend lines are back up, she has never faltered in Florida, Michigan, Nevada, California and New York, and Golden Boy Barry is finally having to answer real questions, demonstrating that he is simply too green for the White House at this time.

No comments: