Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Crosstab Factoid

I'm tracking a new parameter in the crosstabs tonight - when did the voter decide to go with their candidate?

In EVERY state I've analyzed so far (AL, AR, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY), even the states where Obama won big, like Georgia, Clinton received the majority of votes from people who decided today, often by more than 50% of that group.

This supports the broad evidence of both the Gallup and the Rasmussen tracking polls, that Hillary has been going up within the last three days. Undecideds broke for her. What is also evident in the crosstabs is that Obama had his biggest pickup of voters more than a week ago, with a significant bulk of people deciding for him. Conversely, people who decided more than a month ago are majority Clinton.

She held her long standing supporters and is collecting a large number right at the polls.


PS - And she just won Arizona, whoo-hoo!


Anonymous said...

Hillary wins Cali! She proves the pundits and Zogby wrong again!

Anonymous said...

I noticed this too. She does very well with early and late / last-minute deciders. My theory: these people are deciding based on something other than the media narrative or who said what about whom when. Something else is motivating them.