Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Sex and Race

I'm back from casting my vote for Hillary and have settled in for an evening of cross-tab goodness.

Looking over the available exit polls, it is clear that sex and race are the determining factors, with a small nod being given to age.

Black men are voting heavily for Obama and white women are voting heavily for Clinton. There are a few anomalies (CT, which has an abnormally high under 30 turnout and IL, where Obama gets 60% of the white female vote) that I can spot, but the story here is that white women are turning out in record numbers and they are voting for Hillary.

The one state that probably should have gone for HRC was Delaware, but Biden got 4% of the vote and cost her the win.

The other pattern I think I see, though I need to go more carefully through the tabs is that people who decided late, in the last three days, aqre more likely to vote for Hillary.

So, incredibly heavy female turnout, usually 58-69%, with women and late deciders going for Hillary. No western state numbers yet. Obama is winning where he was forecast and Hillary is winning where she was forecast to do so. The Gallup poll this AM shows HRC up by 5 and Rasmussen has her up by 7, but those are national numbers and include people not in tonight's primary states.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Yes, everything is pretty much going as expected. I'm crossing my fingers that she will win California. I have a good feeling about it!

It'll be a fight until the end. I'm just reminding myself that she still has more superdelegates as well as MI and FL.