Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Exit Polls Tell the Story

  • Hillary won the white male vote in both Texas and Ohio
  • Hillary won Latinos, male and female, overwhelmingly in TX
  • Hillary got double-digit AA votes in TX, and among AA men (a very interesting factoid, I think) in OH
  • Hillary strongly won voters who are not doing well financially and who are worried about the economy
  • Hillary wins Democrats hands down
  • Hillary wins white Independents
  • Hillary wins women
  • More voters are satisfied if Hillary wins than if Obama wins
  • Hillary's momentum is back - as with Super Tuesday, recent deciders broke strongly in her favor.

It looks like Obamacans are trying to win caucuses in Texas by fraud. This reeks of desperation. He may keep even with delegate counts because of the skewing of the caucus (which is a double vote, btw - vote in primary, vote again in the caucus). But he has clearly lost the popular vote.

What to make of this? A few things. First and foremost, Obamamania has peaked. He should have won all the states tonight, given his massive money advantage, his multiple-win momentum in February, his kissy-kissy treatment by the press (though that worm has turned), and the 24/7 Clinton Derangement Syndrome condition of all media outlets. But he didn't. With every advantage possible, and cross-over voting by Republicans to boost him up against HRC, he has lost two more huge states.

When faced with a large Democratic voting base of ethnically and economically diverse voters who use a secret ballot in an all-day primary, Obama consistently loses to Clinton among the constituencies who are most vulnerable to defection to the Republicans - blue collar whites, non-college educated women, Latinos of all age, gender and economic brackets.

Ohio and Texas, very different demographic states, put the lie to the piddly-ass caucus "victories" of February. Hillary has now won:

  • California
  • Florida
  • Ohio
  • Texas
  • New York
  • New Jersey
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan

All of them (except Michigan) under conditions like the general election. She has also won border states that Obama couldn't touch (Oklahoma, Tennessee & Arkansas). If they were to revote Florida and Michigan, Hillary would wipe the floor with The Precious. I don't think that's in the cards now, because that would send The Golden One to the convention with a losing hand.

When it is possible for the core of the party to vote in a secret ballot primary, Hillary wins the majority of the time. She is the stronger general candidate and simply more qualified to be president. She is also poised to lock the Hispanic vote in for Democrats for a generation. The win in Ohio will not be lost on superdelegates. The Dems must win Ohio to win the general. With the energized Latina vote, there is even a chance that we could win Florida, too. And that, my friends, is the White House and a President who knows the system inside and out and is ready to launch the cap to the Social Security foundation - Universal Health Care.



hg said...

Thank you for this cogent analysis: All of the other primetime lefty blogs sound morose and depressed as they report Hillary's Ohio victory and at-minimum tie in Texas. They refuse to realize this truth: Despite the spin and frothing from the MSM, Hillary is steadily pulling the votes that will ensure a Democratic win in November. In contrast, so many of Obama's victories in February were wholly undemocratic caucuses--in which only a miniscule slice of the voting populace has the time and financial freedom (not to mention inclination) to participate in a multi-hour evening event, group think and peer pressure are in full force, disorganization is the norm, etc.--or primaries in states that will easily go to McCain in November.

The fact that Hillary is still going says it all--she's still standing tall after decades of unqualified attacks, the blatantly negative media coverage over the last year, and as you point out, Obama's inability to knock her out with all of his huge advantages. She knows and we know that she's the best qualified person for the monumental challenges awaiting POTUS #44. And I'm giving her more money now to fight the good fight.

Anonymous said...

Well, Bill Clinton is a very good politician and knows how to analyze the electorate. He had always said that the primary would be the toughest battle for Hillary and he was right.

We are watching history in front of our eyes. We have a women candidate that is the most viable person to be POTUS. She is breaking the mold and it is breathtaking to watch.

It's clear she has the Democratic base. It's clear she can win the states needed to win in the GE. She is slowly inching her way to history. Frankly, I think most people realize she hasn't gotten a fair shake, yet she continues to fight on.

American's love that. She's a winner.

Anonymous said...

Bitches get things done!
What a night. I expected her to win OH and RI but I'm so glad she pulled through in TX. Bill Clinton was right. He said that if she won TX and OH she'd be the nominee and if not she'd be out of the race. Well she's proven that she's in it till the end and she's in it to win!
The MSM and Obamabots continue to demand Clinton to concede but the only person who should be stepping down in order for our party to heal is Barack Obama. He wins these puny red caucus states. His win depends on threatening black superdelegates to leave Hillary and using the delegates from these undemocratic caucuses while Clinton gets the popular vote. He's trying to pull another Bush v. Gore and as a Democrat it is a disgrace. The only way this party can come together is if there is a Clinton/Obama ticket. He needs to step off his high horse and think about it after Clinton wins PA. Either he can run with Clinton and gain the experience to truly be qualified for president in eight years or he can drag this on and possibly win the nomination but lose to McCain.

Anonymous said...

As a Texas woman, I count last night as one of our best. Since the founding of this great country, every generation of little girls has dreamed of the day a woman would have the chance to be its leader. That day has finally come. Whether we are of Anglo, Hispanic, African-American, Middle Eastern, Asian or European descent, we need to one of our own. Hillary Clinton has been an open-hearted teenager, a spiritual person, a fine student, a courageous civil rights volunteer, an accomplished attorney, a dedicated wife, a working mother, a respected Senator, an example to young women and a global force for good. She has done all that our society asks of women who want to be taken seriously--now it is time for all of us who have also lived as strong women to celebrate this amazing opportunity to support her as the first woman President. Barak Obama would be a great VP and could then lead us for two terms of his own. Let's here it for Hillary and a combined ticket. That would be unbeatable!