Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Exit Poll Data

Update - the exit data has changed since I originally reported it, though not by a lot. What I say below may not be identical to what is finally reported.

I'm using the exit poll data on CNN.

More women than men voted and more women chose Hillary. She won a higher percentage of male vote than she usually does, @ 47%.

Age Info
The youth vote was only 10%. This should worry party leaders as Obama is strongest in this age bracket, which is also the least likely to turn out for a vote. What is very surprising is that the next age bracket, 30-44 was lower than usual as well, only 17%. Though the majority of both groups voted for Obama, they simply did not turn out to support him in the same numbers they have in earlier contests. Voters over 44 turned out en masse and strongly supported Hillary.

The youth vote Hillary did win was the whites under 29. I am still looking for sex breakdowns on this, but I'm willing to bet that a lot of young woemn voted for Hillary.

God Squad
Strange breakdown where people who attend church more than one per week and those who never attend both broke for Obama, but together made up only 27% of voters. Regular weekly church goers went with Hilalry by a big margin. She overpowered him 3-1 in the Catholic vote.

Money Matters
More voters, regardless of candidate, said Hillary would imrpove the economy than said Obama would do so.

Obama won Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs, but lost all the rest of the state. This is not good as it is the rest of the state that is most likely to defect to McCain in November, and where Kerry was also soundly trounced.

Education & Class
Hillary wins overwhelmingly with non-college educated voters, 2-1, while Obama enjoys a small five point advantage among college educated and higher. Voters making less than $100,000/year favored Clinton. The rich favored Obama, but in an interesting pattern. Hilalry won vters belwo $75K in income,, and then the voting slice from $100-$150k and she won that group decisively.

People who think the economy & health care are msot important went with Hillary. People who think Iraq is most important went with Obama.

This statistic is a little tricky. 97% of voters polled gave an opinion on how they would vote in November. The number split indicates of thepercentage providing that answer, how many are HRC supporters and how many are BHO supporters.
If Obama is the nominee:

72% will vote for him (37/63)
15% will vote McCain (90/10)
10% will stay home (99/1)

If Hillary is the nominee:
80% will vote for her (60/40)
11% will vote McCain (26/73)
6% will stay home (7/93)

These numbers should give Dean the heebie jeebies. HRC voters, the majority of Pennsylvania voters, are far less likely to support Obama than the other way around. Further more, they are more likely to defect to McCain than BHO voters. That's not just costing a vote, that's adding one to McCain's side.

Later on in the survey, more people say they will be satisified if Hillary wins the presidency than if Obama wins it.

Party Affiliation
Once again, Barack Obama has failed to win the Democratic Party vote. 82 of the vters were self-idetified Democrats and they went 53/47 for HRC. Further, Obama only squeaked out a 1% margin among Independents.

Another statistic is interesting. Obama's "Democrat for a Day" campaign paid dividends as 61% of people changing their party affiliation voted for him. Most of these appear to be Independents (remember, closed primary).

Clinton won 60% of the white vote, Obama won 90% of the Black vote and breakdowsn on other ethnicities was not counted. This next statistic is the one that will be making the headlines tomorrow, however. 20% of people stated that the race of the candidate was important to them, and 59% of those voters voted for Hilalry. This will be taken as prima facie evidence that "racists" gave her the win. Count on it. That is the only meme that will matter tomorrow as Obam tries to shame college educated whites into voting for him.

Decision Time & Momentum
Ocne again, the exitpoll shows that Obama has exhausted his popularity. People who made up their minds since Ohio and Texas voted for Hillary, and the late deciding voters picked Hillary 2-1. This is important as this is a pattern with her in the polls. People who decide late pick her. Voters who favored Obama made up their minds in February, when he was riding the big media wave. Voters who decied on or before Super Tuesday slightly favor Clinton. The momentum is with her.

Take Away
Obama's momentum is over. He has once again failed to make significant inroads into core Democratic voters, and will probably suffer severe defections to McCain in those demographics. Hillary once again shows that she can appeal to people across the spectrum of the party as well as to Independents despite a filthy and high-powered campaign to defeat her, despite being outsepnt 4 or 5 to 1, despite having the MSM and Left Blogistan repeating crap about her 24/7.

Obama cannot deliver the goods. He is damaged goods. He will do the party no good come November.



whaleshaman said...

He should quit. :-D

Shainzona said...

Well, Olbermann just set out the BO playbook for the future.

If Hillary wins and loses the GE ...or if BO wins and loses the GE...IT'S ALL HILLARY'S FAULT.



Anonymous said...

whaleshaman: He really should quit. That won't happen of course. Obama is the candidate who doesn't care about the Democratic Party. He's perfectly fine taking this nomination away from the first woman who has worked her ass off longer than him to get to this point. He's perfectly fine with stealing this nomination by disenfranchising millions of voters in two key states. He's fine with losing against McCain as long as he goes down in the history books as the first black Democratic nominee and he can blame his loss on racism and Clinton for dividing the party in the primary season. Obama knows he's weak. That's why we haven't seen his face for an entire week and threw a hissy fit when asked a foreign policy question while eating a waffle. He doesn't want to answer questions. He doesn't want to face reality much like his followers. They cling to his messiah image but thank goodness the majority of Democrats live in reality and didn't buy into the DVDs, posters, and manufactured image that Axelrod has fooled so many youths and rich folks with.

Pat Johnson said...

One of the umpteenth talking heads mentioned that only 1 out of 10 black voters cast a ballot today. Doesn't that erase the data that his voters will not come out for Hillary? If they can't vote in the primary what does that tell you.

Anonymous said...

This NYTimes Editorial is outrageous:


I hope everyone leaves a comment because the Obamabots are flooding the comments section telling NYTimes to rescind their endorsement. I have a feeling Frank Rich has something to do with this.

Betty B. said...

Just recently found my way to your blog, very impressive and insightful. I just went to Hillary's website and made a donation. Wish we Hillary supporters had a network like moveon that would make regular donations.

Should Obama drop out? He cannot win even with outspending her 3-1.

A G said...

I saw the same thing about the God Squad - and that's happened in some other states too.
I think the deal here is that the people who never go to church are people of other religions, or atheists, and are usually going to be far left, voting for Obama. The people who go to church more than once a week (who are these people????) are probably the anti-abortion crowd.
The rest span the spectrum, but are more representative/middle-of-the-road people.
What do you think?

Clyde said...

I was looking at the map, and once you get out of the Philadelphia and Harrisburg areas it wasn't even close especially when you consider the huge advantage Obama had in Philly.

The only place he kept it close was in Allegheny County if you want to call about eight points close. Everywhere else it at least a twenty to thirty five point margin.

And, it's amazing that she managed to win with over 200,000 more votes than him because Philadelphia gave him a 130,000 margin, and combined with the other few counties he won, about 166,000 vote totals. The fact that she overcame that and won by more than 200,000 votes is not good news for Dean and company.

Unknown said...

Obama won Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs, but lost all the rest of the state.

He lost Bucks and Montgomery Counties, which are two of the main Philly suburbs.

Hank Gillette said...

Anglachel said:

This next statistic is the one that will be making the headlines tomorrow, however. 20% of people stated that the race of the candidate was important to them, and 59% of those voters voted for Hilalry.

I don't know how much stock should be taken in exit polls on information such as this. I would guess that the numbers for people who voted against Obama because he is black, or against Clinton because she is a woman would underreported, since the exit polls rely on people admitting that they are racist or sexist.

One interesting category you didn't mention was the one on gender. 20% of the respondents said that the gender of the candidate was important to them and 71% of them voted for Hillary.

That would mean, if the two categories are disjoint (which may not be the case), that 26% of the voters voted for Hillary either because she is a woman, or because she is not black.

Based on this, the gender issue is helping Hillary, not hurting her, and the racial issue is hurting Obama.

Nancy Wilkinson said...

re Chevalier's God squad analysis:
This leftie atheist both voted for and donated to Hillary. I haven't been checking any atheist blogs lately, but her type of religiousity is way less scary than Obama's to me. Yeah, she's a believer but she doesn't allow her beliefs to overrule the constitution or common sense.

jangles said...

A note about age categories and voting. PA has experienced a big out migration of younger and middle age people. It may be that the numbers of younger voters not showing up to vote is a part of that pattern. I think PA is a state with one of the highest median ages.

jangles said...

The dominant news today seemed to be the incredible influx of campaign funds to Hillary---10 million in one day; Axelrod's inane comment that Dems did not need blue collar workers to win; and the appearance of some very nasty ads in NC courtesy of the Republican state party and the author of the Dukakis Willie Sutton ad. If this begins to happen in NC and IN then Obama may have some real headaches. The only other news theme I picked up was in the headlines from my local San Diego Union, the ONION, "the dynamics of the race remain the same". Echoed in many other media headlines, including the WSJ. Guess they did not get that 10 Million info piece.