Saturday, January 26, 2008

SC Primary Results - Updated

Let's see:

The biggest story not being reported - Democrats had a turn-out of 522,485 for the primary, while Republicans only brought out 431,196. This is excellent news for the Democrats. The Republican field is an unispiring lot while the Democrats are getting their constituents fired up.
  • Hillary is pulling @ 28-30% 25.5% 27% of the total vote, which is what slightly less than she's been polling in SC since November.
  • She is also getting @ 18% 20% of the AA vote, which is comparable to bettter than what she has received in all other states except Michigan, where Obama removed himself from the ballot.
  • Edwards is getting the most conservative votes, as he has in the other contests.
  • Obama is winning 75-80% of the AA vote, which is the percent he has received in all his other contests.
  • Hillary and Obama are both strong with voters, with the majority of them saying they would be satisified to see eiother of them as the presidential nominee. Obama has an edge in this measure, which is due to the demographics of South Carolina.
  • Youth vote came out strongly and voted strongly for Obama, as expected, with a higher margin than he has received before. HRC is slightly down from NH in this bracket and Edwards is bombing.
  • Voters are saying that the economy is their biggest concern.

So, no surprises but probably a big disappointment for Edwards, who had obviously hoped to do better. Obama did not exceed expectations and commentators will (wrongly) go on and on about the racial aspect of the vote. South Carolina has a large AA population and Obama polled among that constituency better than he did in Iowa (72%) but less well than he did in Nevada (83%). [Added] I don't think this is statistically significant. Nevada was a very small sample and had a higher margin of error, so his support may have been over stated there, plus there is reasdon to beleive the exit polls are underestimating Obama's strength by just inder 1%.

The final polling results are explained through the demographic balance of the specific electorate, but the actual allocation of who attracts which voter is comparable to national averages. On to Florida.

Update note: Obama opened a little more margin in the actual vote compared to exit polls. His constituents turned out in great numbers and so did HRC's. So much for the MSM meme of how horrible the Democratic race is. Supporters are energized and getting to the polls. Republicans can only wish they had as much energy and excitement as this "negative" Democratic campaign.


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